Solano County says East Solano Plan will cost billions, lead to more traffic congestion

The initiative may lead to as many as 94,000 temporary and permanent jobs during the first and build-out phases, the county report says.

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The Solano County Board of Supervisors will soon receive a preliminary economic impact report on the California Forever growth project known as the East Solano Plan, county officials confirmed to Solano NewsNet this week.

The impact report, set to be discussed during the Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, says the plan put forward by California Forever will “create significant fiscal deficits” that will impact Solano County, including the Montezuma Fire Protection District, which provides fire services to unincorporated parts of the county between Fairfield and Rio Vista.

The first phase of the development project would create an estimated annual fiscal deficit of $5.9 million for Solano County and $6.5 million for the fire protection district, the county says in the report. The build-out phase will see the annual deficit rise to $103.1 million for Solano County and $88.8 million for the fire district.

To offset those deficits, Solano County would need to impose a tax of just under $2,000 per single-family home within the new development area, which it calls a “communities facility district.” For multifamily dwellings, the tax would be slightly under $1,000, the report projects.

Infrastructure costs associated with the East Solano Plan would top $6.4 billion for the first phase of the project and over $49 billion for the build-out phase if California Forever and its associates are not able to identify funding sources for that part of the East Solano Plan.

At least six new K-8 schools and two high schools will be needed in the development area, which will cost around $743 million to fund. During the build-out phase, the county estimates the cost of the eight schools will be $5.9 billion.

The development “may result in 94,000 jobs” during the build-out phase, the county report says, which would “significantly increase employment opportunities” during development. Some of those jobs are expected to remain after the community is established, the report concludes.

Last week, California Forever released its own impact report that claimed the number of permanent jobs established by the new development will range between 53,000 and 87,000, and create a tax surplus of $44 million to $54 million that will benefit Solano County over the long-term.

A summary report released by Solano County ahead of the Tuesday meeting did not address any potential surplus, but did say a portion of the jobs created through the East Solano Plan would likely be higher than the average wage in Solano County at present. Some who currently live in Solano County may relocate to the new development, which could adversely impact local businesses that are already established in the seven incorporated cities.

The county report says traffic will definitely skyrocket during the development phase of the project, which would involve detours, road closures and an uptick in traffic delays over the course of 10 years. Road infrastructure would need to be significantly improved in order to accommodate the community, which the county says would be about the size of present-day Vacaville.

Some of the road infrastructure projects that would need to be performed include a widening of Highway 12 between Fairfield and Rio Vista, and improvements to the Rio Vista Bridge, which connects Solano County to neighboring Sacramento County.

In addition to the impact on roads, county officials have expressed concerns over the environmental impacts of the East Solano Plan, saying the loss of 17,500 acres of agriculture “includes significant ecosystem impacts, including the loss of climate change adaptation, biodiversity maintenance, water regulation, wildfire mitigation and aesthetic benefits.”

Solano County officials said the report offers a preliminary indication of the financial impacts of the East Solano Plan, and doesn’t contain a comprehensive view of the potential impacts or benefits, because there are still details about the development plan that have not been revealed.

“A full assessment of impacts is limited by a lack of details in the initiative, including the lack of detail on phasing, infrastructure funding, water supply assessment, or a plan for addressing traffic impacts,” the officials said.

Members of the public will have an opportunity to comment on the county’s economic impact study during a Board of Supervisors meeting scheduled for Tuesday afternoon. The meeting will take place at 675 Texas Street, with lines forming around 1 p.m.

The economic impact study is the first step toward the placement of an initiative on the November ballot that would give voters the opportunity to override Solano County’s local growth initiative. Proponents of the East Solano Plan collected enough signatures to qualify their initiative for the ballot, according to county officials.

Supporters of the development plan claim it will bring high-paying jobs, more housing and other benefits to Solano County, including better medical care, a regional sports complex, improvements to transportation infrastructure and better security for nearby Travis Air Force Base.

In an interview with Solano NewsNet last month, California Forever CEO Jan Sramek said the development plans include the installation of one of the largest solar panel farms in the country, which will provide enough electricity to support the community and nearby areas. He also affirmed that the development plans adequately address where the community will source potable water, and downplayed concerns that the build-out phase of the East Solano Plan will lead to an increase in traffic congestion.